iPhone's Resurgence: Apple Reclaims China's Market Lead
Apple's iPhone sales registered a 15% year-over-year jump during April and May 2025, marking the company's strongest two-month period for this timeframe since the pandemic began, according to Counterpoint Research's Market Pulse Global Monthly Smartphone Sales Report. For Apple enthusiasts, this milestone signals a notable turnaround after a turbulent start to the year, particularly in China, the world's most competitive smartphone market.
Turning the Tide in China
Apple's performance in China stands out as the most consequential shift of the period. Counterpoint's report shows that after a sharp contraction in Q1—driven by intense competition from local vendors and a near 50% drop in March iPhone shipments (CAICT)—Apple not only reversed its recent market share losses but also reclaimed the top spot in China's smartphone market by May. Market observers, such as those at AppleInsider and 9to5Mac, attribute this rebound to aggressive pricing strategies, including substantial discounts on the iPhone 16 series, with offers up to ¥2,530 (roughly $350) on major Chinese e-commerce platforms. The impact of government subsidies and promotional campaigns remains influential, as highlighted by Counterpoint's Ivan Lam, who cautions that future momentum could be closely tied to continued external support in China.
United States: Positive Growth After Three Years
The United States market, consistently Apple's largest, also returned to positive year-over-year growth following a prolonged period of stagnation. Ivan Lam, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, noted that the swings in Apple's global iPhone performance are predominantly dictated by the United States and China, stating, "Q2 iPhone performance looks promising at the moment but as always swings either way are dictated by two markets – US and China." Lam also raised questions about whether some of the uptick in U.S. demand may be linked to anticipatory buying as consumers consider possible tariff changes—a factor that has previously influenced iPhone upgrade cycles.
Japan and India: Diverse Market Strategies
In Japan, Apple's approach to varied pricing and device form factors yielded strong returns. The more affordable iPhone 16e—designed for users who prefer smaller, budget-conscious smartphones—proved especially popular, according to Counterpoint's preliminary data. Apple maintained robust sales for both the iPhone 16 base model and the previous-generation iPhone 14, reflecting the company's multi-layered product strategy in mature smartphone markets.
India emerged as another growth driver, with Apple expanding both its manufacturing base and sales presence. Jeff Fieldhack, a Counterpoint Research analyst, noted that the sales surge suggests "agentic AI is not quite a factor yet" in purchasing decisions, implying that Apple's ongoing rollout of Apple Intelligence and improvements to Siri do not currently play a decisive role for most consumers. This timeline may benefit Apple, allowing further refinements before AI becomes a core differentiator in smartphone buying decisions.
Context: Comparing Past and Present Cycles
The April-May surge comes after a challenging opening of 2025, when Apple faced a steep year-on-year sales decline—most pronounced in China, according to CAICT data. Greater China still accounted for 16.8% of Apple’s global revenue in Q2 2025, even as revenue there has contracted for seven consecutive quarters. The transition from declining to expanding market share mirrors the swings observed after the last sustained growth period in early 2022, when Apple also posted double-digit gains in China.
Looking Ahead
With global smartphone market sell-through showing marked volatility in recent years, Apple’s April-May rebound has immediate implications for strategic planning and competitive positioning. However, analysts cited by both Counterpoint and external observers consistently point to uncertainty: future sales trajectories in China in particular could swing sharply depending on continued subsidy support, competitive reactions, and broader geopolitical factors such as U.S.-China trade policy.
The current rebound demonstrates Apple’s capacity to respond swiftly with pricing and channel strategies tailored to diverse market conditions, even as competitive intensity in its core markets remains elevated. For Apple enthusiasts and close watchers of the company’s global footprint, the latest figures reveal not just short-term recovery but the ongoing complexity of Apple’s battle for market leadership.